What we can learn from Australia’s median house prices from 1970-2016

To buy a home now or wait? It’s a question many people are asking themselves as property prices continue to grow across Australia.

Property prices have always been a popular topic of conversation, but the subject of housing affordability has become more contentious as we approach the May budget announcement.

Especially following reports from The Sydney Morning Herald that the Parliamentary Budget Office has costed a proposal that would kill stamp duty and replace it with land tax, saving home buyers up to $40,000 in Sydney and $55,000 in Melbourne.

While everyone is looking to the government for a housing affordability solution, it’s a good idea to do some research of your own and look at past housing price cycles.

Created by Successful Ways, the below graph tracks the median house price in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth from 1970 to 2016, recorded June 30 of each year.

Image: Successful Ways

What does this all mean?

The Australian property market moves in cycles which are influenced by a wide range of factors including interest rates, consumer confidence, unemployment and of course previous rates of growth that impact on rental yields and levels of affordability.

While Australia’s current annual population growth of 1.4 percent may seem modest, this also adds 340,000 to our population each year, which is one new Darwin resident every 20 weeks or a new Tasmanian every 18 months.

Each state has its own property cycle and there are cycles within each cycle. Different areas, different price points and different types of property have their own cycle.

You’ll find that in each 10-year period there seems to be 3-4 years when the market is flat, 3-4 years of low capital growth, and a few years of strong price growth during the boom stage of the cycle.

When you look at the property prices that prevailed 10 and 20 years ago, and look at property prices today, it’s clear that property investment is a long-term play. You need to be patient as, over the long term, values in our major capital cities have doubled every 7 to 10 years.

With 5 year fixed investor rates as low as 4.29%, it makes sense to invest in Sydney property. With history proving it almost doubles every 10 years, there is never a bad time to buy.

For sale: 15 Charles Street, Leichhardt, NSW

For more information on the current market situation and future direction, attend the Successful Ways First Home Buyers Course located in Sydney’s CBD. Save 50% off tickets with the discount code SWBM2017. Book now, places are limited.